Reality vs. Fantasy

One of the interesting things you notice when you play fantasy football is how it can alter your perception of players.

If football is the ultimate team sport, then fantasy football is the ultimate individual sport. When you focus so much on how each player did on Sunday, it can be easy to forget how that player’s team did on Sunday. Many of the best performances in fantasy football come in games in which the player is on the losing side. (Witness Arian Foster‘s 31 points last week, when the Houston Texans fell to the San Diego Chargers.) And many games that an NFL head coach will chalk up as a victory, or even as a defining moment in the season, can make a fantasy player want to do this.

For an example of how fantasy football can alter perceptions, let’s take a look at two quarterbacks who are probably starting somewhere in your league this Sunday.

Here’s what the inimitable Bill Simmons had to say last week about Carson Palmer:

“Apparently, I’m the only person outside of Cincinnati who realizes that Carson Palmer hasn’t been good in four years. … His conventional statistics keep throwing everyone off his rancid scent — 1,855 yards (seventh overall), 12 TDs, seven picks, 83 QB rating. Not terrible, right? So you have to dig a little … and that’s when you find out that he’s last in third-down passing (49 percent completion rate, 431 yards, 62 rating), or that defenders have dropped 215 possible Palmer interceptions (approximate) … If the Bengals were smart, they’d start pounding the ball with Cedric Benson and reducing Palmer’s effect on the game.”

And it’s true that Palmer is having a terrible season when it comes to winning and losing. His Cincinnati Bengals currently sit at the bottom of the AFC Central with a 2-6 record. They’re even looking up at the Cleveland Browns.

Now, consider this recent quote from the top-notch Don Banks about Tom Brady:

“As his work with the just-arrived [Deion] Branch on Sunday showed, Brady makes his receivers relevant. Yep, we’re starting the MVP debate as October winds down, and my vote at the moment belongs to Brady. … When it comes to deciding his team’s fortunes, he’s the biggest difference-maker there is. Take him out of the lineup, and New England is a third-place team in its division, miles behind both the Jets and Dolphins.”

Again, hard to argue here. Despite losing to the Browns last Sunday, the New England Patriots have a 6-2 record. The only thing keeping them from the top of the AFC East is the head-to-head tiebreaker against the New York Jets.

Now, consider this about the two quarterbacks in question: As I type this (halftime of Thursday night’s game), Palmer has put up 116 points so far this season in standard ESPN fantasy football leagues. Brady has put up 115. They are separated in the fantasy world by a single point.

This is not to discount the many strengths of fantasy football. But it goes to show that determining a good NFL team is not one of them.

Reminder: The NASCAR lineup polls will close later tonight, so please get your votes in now. We’ll be back with the results.